Prof. Claudia Lux hatte ihn in ihrer Antrittsvorlesung zitiert:
Dr William Crossman, Founder/Director of the CompSpeak 2050 Institute for the Study of Talking Computers and Oral Cultures, predicts that as we say goodbye to keyboards we will begin the transition to a verbal society. He also predicts that by 2050 literacy will be dead.
Thomas Frey, Executive Director of the DaVinci Institute, einem der führenden Zukunftsthinktanks hatte sichunlängst Gedanken gemacht über die Zukunft der Bibliotheken und kam zu etwas konservativen (techniklastigen) Einsichten (für einen Zukunftsforscher). Dennoch sind seine Trendextrapolationen bedenkenswert und seine Empfehlungen für Bibliotheken erst recht.
Seine 10 Trends
#1 – Communication systems are continually changing the way people access information
#2 – All technology ends. All technologies commonly used today will be replaced by something new.
#3 – We haven’t yet reached the ultimate small particle for storage. But soon
#4 – Search Technology will become increasingly more complicated
#5 – Time compression is changing the lifestyle of library patrons
#6 – Over time we will be transitioning to a verbal society
#7 – The demand for global information is growing exponentially
#8 – The Stage is being set for a new era of Global Systems
#9 – We are transitioning from a product-based economy to an experience based economy
#10 – Libraries will transition from a center of information to a center of cultureRecommendations for LibrariesLibraries are in a unique position. Since most people have fond memories of their times growing up in libraries, and there are no real “library hater” organizations, most libraries have the luxury of time to reinvent themselves.The role of a library within a community is changing. The way people interact with the library and the services it offers is also changing. For this reason we have put together a series of recommendations that will allow libraries to arrive at their own best solutions.1) Evaluate the library experience. Begin the process of testing patron’s opinions, ideas, thoughts, and figure out how to get at the heart of the things that matter most in your community. Survey both the community at large and the people who walk through the library doors.2) Embrace new information technologies. New tech products are being introduced on a daily basis and the vast majority of people are totally lost when it comes to deciding on what to use and what to stay away from. Since no organization has stepped up to take the lead in helping the general public understand the new tech, it becomes a perfect opportunity for libraries. Libraries need to become a resource for as well as the experts in each of the new technologies.a. Create a technology advisory board and stay in close communication with them.b. Recruit tech savvy members of the community to hold monthly discussion panels where the community at large is invited to join in the discussions.c. Develop a guest lecture series on the new technologies.3) Preserve the memories of your own communities. While most libraries have become the document archive of their community, the memories of a community span much more than just documents. What did it sound like to drive down Main Street in 1950? What did it smell like to walk into Joe’s Bakery in the early mornings of 1965? Who are the people in these community photos and why were they important? Memories come in many shapes and forms. Don’t let yours disappear.4) Experiment with creative spaces so the future role of the library can define itself. Since the role of the library 20 years from now is still a mystery, we recommend that libraries put together creative spaces so staff members, library users, and the community at large can experiment and determine what ideas are drawing attention and getting traction. Some possible uses for these creative spaces include:a. Band practice roomsb. Podcasting stationsc. Blogger stationsd. Art studiose. Recording studiosf. Video studiosg. Imagination roomsh. Theater-drama practice roomsWe have come a long ways from the time of da Vinci and the time when books were chained to lecterns. But we’ve only scratched the surface of many more changes to come. Writing the definitive history of modern libraries is a work in progress. Our best advice is to enjoy the journey and relish in the wonderment of what tomorrow may bring.